Лев и дракон: новый этап китайско-иранского стратегического партнёрства

However, on July 13, the head of the presidential administration, Mahmoud Vaezi, commented on the "deal of the century" on the air of the state TV channel, saying that no one can secretly accept anything, the document will definitely go through parliament, it enjoys the support of Ayatollah Khamenei, and there will hardly be parliamentary approval before the end of the year due to outbreak of coronavirus [24].

With this deal, the Iranian government could buy time to maintain the status quo until the U.S. presidential elections in November 2020, the outcome of which will determine the trajectory of U.S.-Iranian relations and the fate of Iran's 2015 nuclear deal, known as the JCPOA and will also affect the presidential elections in Iran in June 2021 [79]. Perhaps Tehran is waiting for the outcome of the presidential elections in the U.S. and some other important foreign policy events, so it has prepared a grandiose Chinese plan "B" in case of the failure of plan "A". Plan "A" is to stake on negotiations with the U.S., and the Chinese roadmap for a period of 25 years is an argument for Washington to change its mind and return to the negotiating table on new conditions. If the Democrats win the U.S. elections, the chances of such an outcome are pretty high. If Trump wins, the situation is more complicated, but the "oppositionist" who opposes Rouhani and the Chinese deal of the century, the IRGC hawk Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who plans to re-run (and win) the presidential elections in May 2021, has already been prepared for negotiations with him. It is possible that the criticism of the "secret plan to sell the Motherland" is a cunning idea of Iranian conservatives, who relied on the most vocal opponent of the deal with the PRC, Ahmadinejad, in the elections with the instruction to try to negotiate with the Americans when the rates have already been raised to historic highs. And the entire liberal camp is not a pity to set up personally as "lobbyists" of China, since their eight-year period on the Olympus of Iranian politics is already coming to an end. If it doesn't work out with the Americans, you can always say: I was not against China, I was against the secret deal led by Rouhani [24].

The announcement of the deal with China allows the Rouhani government to demonstrate that it is not putting all its eggs in the western basket, that Iran is not isolated and may even see economic improvements despite U.S. sanctions. Now that tensions between China and the U.S. are rising, Iran is hoping China will support its economy and balance the U.S. Closer ties with China will give Iran more leverage in future negotiations with the U.S. and Europe when it comes to revising or restoring the JCPOA, as well as in its dealings with regional rivals such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates [79].

For Iran, developing closer ties with China is also a way of irritating Europe. Tehran has repeatedly expressed its impatience with European countries over the lack of economic dividends promised under an international nuclear deal that limited Iran's nuclear enrichment program in exchange for easing sanctions. Perhaps the Iranians would not have persecuted this policy so strongly if European business had supported the country [6].

Iran has so far managed to wriggle out, since it is now not alone on the battlefield with the U.S., but behind a powerful Chinese back, and this means that Tehran is trading with both Beijing and Washington [24].