Лев и дракон: новый этап китайско-иранского стратегического партнёрства

4. IRAN AS A KEY NODE IN CHINESE MSR FOR ESTABLISHING NAVAL BASES

As mentioned above, the new agreement includes China's plans to develop several ports in Iran, such as Bandar-e-Jask (strategically located east of the Strait of Hormuz), which will become the country's main transshipment point and give Beijing control of one of seven major sea bottlenecks in the world. The presence of a foothold in Bandar e Jask would allow China not only to control the Fifth U.S. Navy based in Bahrain, but together with a presence in the ports of Djibouti and Gwadar (Pakistan) could increase China's positions in the Indian Ocean `region` (IOR) [27]. It is about building a model of multi-purpose infrastructure of "strategic strongholds", including Sri Lanka (Hambantota port), Pakistan (Gwadar port), Bangladesh (Chittagong port), Myanmar (Kyaukpyu port) and Cambodia (Kahkong port, as well as military Ream Naval Base), which are "more designed as hybrid commercial and military logistics points than a collection of traditional military bases" [23]. Analysts `said` a comprehensive strategic pact with Iran could allow China, which already has a base in Djibouti, to establish a military presence on the Iranian-Pakistani coast. The PLA could even help set up a network to monitor U.S. and Indian naval activities in the `region`. With the help of Chinese support and an oil terminal beyond Hormuz, Iran can also strengthen its position within the Persian Gulf [29].

Thus, the interconnected network of industrial parks and ports created by Chinese companies in some Gulf countries could further challenge the U.S.' dominance in the region surrounding the strategically important Strait of Hormuz [2]. For China, the deal not only opens up the opportunity to control Chahbahar and monopolize trade routes to CA, but also for the development of naval facilities in the Gulf of Oman. And as the U.S. is about to leave Afghanistan, a partnership with Iran will give China a near stranglehold over a strategic corridor stretching from CA to the Arabian Sea [79]. Iran's attempts to shift its geostrategic focus from the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman, relying on the development of the two strategic ports of Jask and Chahbehar, will allow it to avoid tensions in the Persian Gulf `region`, shorten the routes of tankers carrying Iranian oil, and also allow Tehran to close the Strait of Hormuz if necessary [2].

But U.S. sanctions are pushing India out of Chahbahar and upsetting Iran, which is already pushing India out of a rail project to bypass Pakistan, another competitor in trade with CA [79]. And indeed, days after the details of the proposed Sino-Iranian deal of 2020 were made `public`, information was leaked to the Indian press about Iran's decision to exclude India from an extensive rail project that would connect the Iranian port city of Chabahar to Zahedan, a city near the border with Afghanistan [27].16 There is an opinion among Indian experts that, perhaps India has lost Iran forever, because contrary to expectations, to complete the development project of the Chabahar port as soon as possible, India did not do it because of the pressure from the United States. Indian firms that had dealings with American firms were slow to proceed with the project, while Iran urgently needed to develop its economic infrastructure given its growing population [52]. According to statements by Iranian officials, the main reason Iran excluded India from the Chabahar Zahedan project was India's delay in fulfilling its funding commitments for the project, as well as the fact that India chose to be part of Donald Trump's campaign of maximum pressure on Tehran after the U.S. withdrawal in 2018 from Iran's nuclear deal and re-imposition of unprecedented sanctions, and also stopped oil purchases from Iran in April 2019. However, in November 2018, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo officially announced that the Chabahar port project would be exempted from U.S. sanctions [73].

Many considered removing India from the railway project (which ultimately extended to Zaranj on the Afghan side of the border) as a serious setback to its plans to create an alternative trade route to Afghanistan and CA bypassing Port Gwadar in Pakistan. So, the inclusion of Iran in the BRI structure could lead to India losing the leverage that its close ties with the U.S. provide against China, also lead to the fact that India will cede its position to China in Afghanistan [27]. Beijing could use its influence in Iran and Pakistan to encircle Afghanistan, creating problems for American interests [30].