Лев и дракон: новый этап китайско-иранского стратегического партнёрства

1. INTRODUCTION

Iran initiated diplomatic relations with the People’s Republic of China (PRC) in 1971, only after the United States (U.S.) broke the ice with Beijing [64]. The warming relationship culminated in a state visit to Iran by Hua Guofeng, then-China’s Premier and Chairman of the Communist Party of China (CPC) in 1978 [38]. Prior to the victory of the Islamic Revolution, Beijing welcomed the Shah's "anti-imperial and anti-colonial" policies, viewing Iran as a "defense zone" against the Soviet Union (SU). At the same time, the Anti-Soviet position of the two countries was in line with the U.S. strategy to counter the SU in the `region` [12, с. 56-64].

However, Beijing expressed support for the Islamic revolution led by Khomeini in 1979. China was taking into account Islamic Republic of Iran (IRI)'s strong strategic position in the Middle East (ME), as well as Tehran's growing influence throughout Asia and its ambitions for the role of leader of the Islamic world [3, с. 37-38]. Although the new leadership of the IRI was skeptical of Beijing because of its previous relationship with the Shah, it did not stand in the way of the establishment of diplomatic relations between the two countries in March 1979 [37, p. 4].1

The ties developed over four decades across three phases: military cooperation during the 1980/88 Iran-Iraq War; energy cooperation in the 1990s as China developed quickly; and oil deals which defied sanctions [70]. Bilateral ties strengthened in the mid-1980s, when Beijing developed a defense and arms transfer cooperation with Tehran. Since then, relations between the two countries have expanded to a number of domains. Trade relationship between Iran and China have steadily developed over time, despite international differences over the nuclear program [50].

Iran is the third largest economy in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) `region` after Turkey and Saudi Arabia, with an estimated gross domestic product (GDP) of over US $ 400 billion [68]. In 2019, China became Iran's largest trading partner, with trade between the two countries estimated at US $ 20 billion, which the two countries planned to increase to US $ 600 billion over the next decade, while also building stronger cooperation as part of a 25-year plan [71]. Bilateral trade reflects China's purchases of oil, petrochemicals and minerals, gas condensate and industrial goods [60]. Apart from trade, China is the leading investor in the Iranian market. About 100 large Chinese companies are investing in key sectors of Iran's economy, especially energy and transport [32].

At present, Iran, which due to its geographical location is one of the main players in the ME in the new "Great Game" of geostrategic-political confrontation, has become a possible factor in China's geopolitical ambitions in Central Asia (CA) and the ME. Moreover, as a relatively stable security partner in the troubled ME `region`, Tehran could become one of the main links between CA, the ME and Europe as part of the Chinese New Silk Road initiative [39; 32]. Relations between Beijing and Tehran, which date back to Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s “Pivot to the East policy”, have blossomed under Chinese President Xi Jinping, who is pushing China’s ambitious initiative [70].