Стратегия «жемчужной нити» как мера для реализации инициативы китайского морского шелкового пути

Chinese Naval Activities in the Indian Ocean as a Security Dilemma in the Region

It follows from the foregoing that the establishment of places to support extended Chinese naval activities in the Indian Ocean creates a security dilemma in the region, particularly for U.S. and India. The emergence of tensions regarding the regional order was facilitated by the modernization of the armed forces and the increase in military spending in China, which led to naval expansionism and the construction of artificial islands - not prohibited by international law - and military bases on the islands; also, accelerating the regional arms race in Southeast Asia [Roudgar, 2017, P. 74]. As a result of the implementation of the first stage of the long-term modernization plan, the Chinese navy acquired the ability to "project power" over the entire Yellow Sea, East China and South China Seas within the Philippine Islands and the Ryukyu Islands archipelago [Титаренко, 2008, C. 441].

The U.S. and India are concerned that part of the construction of artificial islands includes the modernization of runways, largely supported by military facilities such as the site on Woody Island, near Vietnam. This means shifting the balance of power in the Indian and Arabian Gulf from traditional Indian government, backed by U.S. military power, to China, backed by regional diplomatic ties. Now the U.S. and India are more concerned about whether this strategy is intended solely for supply of building materials and trade routes, or whether China will subsequently use them to ensure regional superiority [Devonshire-Ellis, 2009].

Since the IPR is a freedom of action for the U.S. Navy and Air Force in accordance with the principle of “freedom of navigation”, Beijing’s attempts to establish sovereignty over the South China Sea, as well as its territorial disputes in the region, are seen by U.S. as an encroachment on the principle “Freedom and openness”, and as “undermining the sovereignty of neighboring countries” for turning them into “satellites” of Beijing [Морозов, 2018, C. 111]. In this regard, it is not surprising that in 2017 the Trump administration introduced a new strategy in Afghanistan: withdrew the U.S. from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP); put an end to the Trans-Atlantic Partnership (TAP) and pursue the Indo-Pacific Strategy (IPS) in the region [Морозов, 2018, C. 108].

The challenge from the PRC in the struggle for control of the sea spaces to many American experts seems to be perhaps the main threat to American leadership and the existence of the entire international order. They believe that in addition to turning the South China Sea into an inland sea, it will also deprive the U.S. Navy of the ability to act globally to maintain a secure environment and the supremacy at sea that is necessary to maintain the Bretton Woods system [Пономарев, 2016, P. 111].

However, many experts are sure that China did not pose a serious challenge to U.S. naval superiority, and the U.S. Navy continues to maintain a dominant position in the Western Pacific and around the world [Li, F., 2014].12 The growing anxiety surrounding China’s military spending must be properly contextualized, particularly given the continued dominance of the U.S. military. China’s potential nuclear threat, while growing, is still comparatively small and vulnerable when viewed alongside that of the U.S. China’s nuclear stockpile is currently between a tenth and a hundredth the size of the U.S. arsenal [Renic, 2012; Harutyunyan, 2017b, p. 14].

As for India, despite the fact that MSR covers ports in countries around India, such as Sri Lanka, the Maldives and Pakistan, but not in India itself, New Delhi believes that China is invading India's waterways. China's investment in CPEC, which cuts through the disputed areas of Kashmir, and also underlines China's strong connection with Pakistan, is another problem for India [Lain, Pantucci, 2015, P. 2]. Consequently, India views the MSR as a threat or form of competition and the “String of Pearls” - as a challenge to the existing balance of power in the Indian Ocean [Chellaney, 2015a], a threat to Indian security in the IOR, as well as a tool to strategically encircle India. The OBOR is described as “the double road of China to superpower status” to implement global hegemony that would threaten India’s dominant position in South Asia and the Indian Ocean and put China in dominant position in Asia-Africa-Europe [Gan, 2015, P. 68-69].

Some experts believe that since America’s influence in these regions is weakening, and the peaceful `region` no longer necessarily requires a U.S. military presence, China’s strategy may be conservatively supported by other countries in Southeast Asia, with the possible exception of India. Pro-American countries such as Japan, South Korea, Australia, and the Philippines can take advantage of improving and developing ties with China, while countries such as Pakistan, North Korea, Myanmar, and Cambodia are already strong allies of Beijing [Devonshire-Ellis, 2009].

However, more likely that countries in the Indian Ocean may be reluctant to support the Chinese military presence and be interested in maintaining balanced relations with the U.S. and India while developing ties with China